The themes behind today's tape, in full.
Art Core
More art auctions are being announced ahead of the autumn season.
The engine counts 73 sales announced since 1 October.
A stronger dollar makes art more expensive for buyers who hold euros.
New wealth in the Gulf and Asia is changing who bids.
Buyers from the Gulf and Asia may fill gaps left by European buyers if the dollar stays strong. Our data shows values but not the names of individual works.
Long-term interest rates have risen sharply, which usually makes buyers more careful about paying high prices for assets that pay no income. The London and New York sales later this month will show whether that is happening.
**What could change this.** Against this: top-end art buyers are less sensitive to currency moves than the middle market.
**So-what:** The autumn sales will show whether demand holds as the dollar strengthens.
**What to watch.** London autumn sales; the euro; Asian bidding.
Geopolitics Core
Fewer tankers left the Gulf for a third day as Iran increased attacks on ships.
Iraq, whose oil passes through the Gulf, devalued its currency, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued.
Both sea routes out of the region — Hormuz and the Red Sea — are now under pressure.
Japan is working with Asian partners on oil reserves.
Iraq relies on oil sales for almost all of its government income, so a long disruption puts pressure on its budget and on public salaries.
Asian countries, which buy most Gulf oil, are the ones most exposed to the disruption.
**What could change this.** Against this: Iraq may have chosen devaluation to fund its budget rather than because of shipping, and the departure data may be undercounting.
**So-what:** The war is now affecting the finances of the countries around the Gulf, not just the oil price.
**What to watch.** Gulf departures; Houthi activity in the Red Sea; Iraq's market exchange rate.
Markets Commodities
Fewer tankers left the Gulf, but crude oil prices stayed flat on Wednesday.
Heating oil rose while gasoline fell, and gold fell 1.1% as the dollar strengthened.
Analysts expect diesel to stay expensive for a long time because refineries cannot keep up.
A suspension of the federal gas tax, now under discussion in Washington, would target gasoline, whose price is falling.
Speculators have also reduced their bets on higher crude prices since early September.
Stockpile releases by governments can cover a shortage of crude for a while, but they do not add refining capacity.
**What could change this.** Against this: stockpile releases are large and deliberate, and they may cover a week-old shortfall for longer than we assume.
**So-what:** The fuel shortage is in diesel and heating oil, and emergency stock releases are holding crude prices down for now.
**What to watch.** Gulf departures; Friday's positioning report; heating oil against gasoline.
Real Assets Aviation
Jet fuel is priced like diesel, which is in short supply, so airlines are feeling it.
Norse Atlantic is keeping fewer flights because fuel costs are high.
Houthi forces have also struck Saudi airports.
Air cargo becomes more important when ships take longer routes.
Airlines that bought fuel in advance at fixed prices are protected for a while; those buying at today's prices feel the cost now. Fewer seats usually mean higher fares.
Jet fuel is made from the same part of the barrel as diesel and heating oil, which is why airlines are affected by the refining shortage. Air cargo also matters more when ships take longer routes.
**What could change this.** Against this: airlines hedge fuel months ahead, so spot moves reach earnings with a lag.
**So-what:** Airline costs depend more on diesel supplies than on the crude oil price.
**What to watch.** Heating oil; airline capacity announcements; Gulf air cargo.
Real Assets Energy
Heating oil and diesel prices rose while gasoline fell.
Refineries are struggling to make enough diesel, and analysts expect high prices into 2027.
A gas-tax suspension would lower petrol prices, but the shortage is in diesel and heating oil.
Demand for electricity keeps rising, and power producers' shares kept climbing.
Demand for heating oil rises in winter, so a shortage that continues into the cold months would hit when use is highest.
Energy companies are also buying: Cenovus agreed a $4 billion deal for Athabasca Oil. Governments have already drawn more than a billion barrels from stockpiles, which limits how much more they can release.
**What could change this.** Against this: heating-oil strength is partly seasonal ahead of winter.
**So-what:** Households heating with oil this winter face the biggest increase in costs.
**What to watch.** Heating oil against gasoline; Gulf departures; the federal fuel-tax decision.
Real Assets Infrastructure
Power companies that sell electricity at market prices kept rising after Google's nuclear deal.
Regulated utilities did not keep up, so the gap between the two groups widened.
Spain and Japan are attracting large data-centre investments.
Public opposition to data centres is growing in the US.
Utilities borrow for decades to build networks, so higher long-term rates raise their costs. Owners of existing plants avoid much of that.
Fusion company Type One raised $200 million, and US regulators cleared a small nuclear reactor for construction. The Philippines warns of blackouts and higher bills. Data-centre projects in Spain and Japan show where new capacity is being built.
**What could change this.** Against this: Vistra's gain may be catch-up after lagging the AI trade.
**So-what:** Existing power plants are becoming more valuable as AI demand grows.
**What to watch.** State rules on data-centre grid costs; merchant generators against utilities.