Themes 6 briefs
The dollar & FX
The dollar, DXY and the currency crosses — the plumbing under every other move.
Wednesday, July 8, 2026
The regime flipped: Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire OVER and the US resumed 'powerful strikes' after Hormuz tanker attacks (threat 'severe'). Oil SPIKED ~6% (WTI ~$74.5, Brent ~$78.5) - and it slammed the rate ceiling back through 5% (30Y ~5.07%). It is an oil-led risk-off: equities fell (Nasdaq -1.2% as chips sold off ~5%), the VIX jumped to ~17.6, and gold FELL (-1.6% ~$4,081) as real yields and a firm dollar beat the haven bid. The dovish window closed; low-vol is the refuge.
Wednesday 2026-07-08 - the ceasefire ends, oil spikes, and an oil-led risk-off slams the rate ceiling back through 5%
Read the briefTuesday, July 7, 2026
A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets - and the tone tilted dovish into Tuesday. Gold is HOLDING near a two-week high (~$4,144), the dollar near two-week lows, and the 30-year eased off 5.00% to ~4.99%. The session itself was AI/chip-LED (Nasdaq +1.1%), momentum fading - but beneath it a low-vol broadening is forming (insurers, REITs) alongside a DISPUTED Nvidia roadmap slip (Kyber to 2028, per SemiAnalysis; Nvidia disputes it). OPEC+ raised output: oil eased ~$68.5. The undercurrent to watch, not yet the leadership.
Tuesday 2026-07-07 - a soft jobs print eases the rate ceiling; watch the undercurrent beneath an AI-led tape
Read the briefSaturday, July 4, 2026
US markets were closed for Independence Day (4 July, a Saturday) - but the markets that never shut kept moving. Over the long weekend GOLD pushed to a new high near $4,176 and silver to ~$62, bitcoin climbed toward $63,000, and the dollar stayed soft (~100.9) - the same hard-asset and de-dollarisation bid that defined the week, running on without a Wall Street session. Equities last closed Thursday; the global AI-'bubble' debate carried on.
Long-weekend edition · 2026-07-04 - US markets closed for Independence Day (equities & yields = Thu 2 Jul close)
Read the briefFriday, July 3, 2026
Wall Street's profit forecasts are rising at the fastest pace since the Covid rebound - enough for the FT to warn of an 'earnings bubble' - and analyst consensus on mega-cap AI is near-unanimous Buy. Yet the tape is quietly LEAVING: Nasdaq -0.8% for a 2nd day on 'tech worries', Dow +1.1%, gold surging to ~$4,130 (+2.3%), the dollar softer. The optimism is the least-hedged risk. Iran tail resolved: Hormuz transits quadrupled as the ceasefire holds.
Friday 2026-07-03 - markets as of the 3 July session
Read the briefThursday, July 2, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have DIPPED - and the FX/crypto tape read a green light: the dollar fell ~0.7% to 100.7, the yen recovered off its ~40-yr low (162.5->161.0), and bitcoin retook $60,000. But the bounce lands in exactly the assets that had a brutal H1: gold's worst quarter in 13 years, Citi cutting BTC/ETH targets as ETF flows dry up. A relief, not yet a trend.
Wednesday 2026-07-02 - markets as of the 2 July session
Read the briefWednesday, July 1, 2026
Trump vowed to 'annihilate' Iran - and the safe-haven bid went into GOLD ($4,036, +1.6%; COT net-long a record-scale 115,395), NOT oil (WTI -2%). Our tanker chains show why: barrels are RE-ROUTING (Baltic +106%, US Gulf +37%, Kozmino -100%), not vanishing. Meanwhile the 30-year yield pushed to 4.96% and the yen hit a ~40-year low - the HSBC 'pain trade.'
Wednesday 2026-07-01 - markets as of the 1 July session
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