Theme updated Oct 8
The dollar & FX
The dollar, DXY and the currency crosses — the plumbing under every other move.
33 mornings covered the dollar & fx this year
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Fewer tankers than normal left the Gulf for a third day with data
The the dollar & fx read — Iraq devalued; the euro fell; the dollar rose.
Read the briefTuesday, October 6, 2026
On Monday the Bovespa rose 7.7% to a record and the real gained 4.4% against the dollar, its biggest one-day rise in eight years
The the dollar & fx read — Shares at a record; the currency rose sharply too.
Read the briefMonday, October 5, 2026
On Friday, two days before the vote, the Bovespa rose 2.6% and Brazilian shares in New York outran the S&P 500 by about 2 points, while the real…
The the dollar & fx read — The real barely moved on Friday.
Read the briefFriday, October 2, 2026
Brent rose more than 4% on Thursday, and Europe paid for it in its currency and its banks
The the dollar & fx read — Euro down against dollar and franc despite rates.
Read the briefWednesday, September 30, 2026
Crude fell about 3.5% on Tuesday, and the US thirty-year still closed at another high last seen in 2002
The the dollar & fx read — Raised rates; its currency fell anyway.
Read the briefSaturday, September 26, 2026
Iran offered a plan to reopen Hormuz within a week and Brent fell 2.14%
The the dollar & fx read — The yen rose after Washington raised its weakness.
Read the briefThursday, September 24, 2026
The 5-year Treasury yield rose 16 basis points to 5.00% and the 10-year 15 to 5.12%
Treasury yields hit two-decade highs on the day diesel fell hardest — and the government's own auctions had been pricing more hikes for a fortnight.
Read the briefSunday, September 20, 2026
Three central banks moved inside five sessions: the Federal Reserve to 4.00% on 16 September, the Bank of England holding at 3.75% on the 17th,…
The the dollar & fx read — Japan raised rates and the yen fell anyway
Read the briefSaturday, September 19, 2026
The ten-year Treasury yield settled at 5.00% on Friday and the five-year at 4.86%, back above its level before Wednesday's hike
The the dollar & fx read — Yen fell on a rate rise
Read the briefThursday, September 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve raised its policy range to 3.75–4.00% on 2026-09-16, its first increase since 2023, and signalled one more before year-end
The the dollar & fx read — Best day in three months — the hike travels
Read the briefSaturday, September 12, 2026
Crude settled above a hundred dollars for a second session — WTI $100.05 and Brent $104.61, carrying the barrel +9.37% across the five settled…
The the dollar & fx read — The yen firmed before Japan is expected to tighten
Read the briefFriday, September 11, 2026
Crude ran better than six per cent in a single session to $102.48 and Brent settled at $107.63, carrying the barrel +12.60% across six settled…
Oil above a hundred, the havens sold, and the five-year leading the curve — the market priced the answer, not the shock
Read the briefThursday, September 10, 2026
Brent settled $101.21 on 2026-09-09 — its first close above one hundred dollars since 2026-07-23 and its highest since 2026-05-22 — +1.83% on the…
The the dollar & fx read — The euro moved +0.43% into its own rate decision
Read the briefWednesday, September 9, 2026
Brent settled $99.39 on 2026-09-08, +2.24% on the session and +5.01% across the five settled sessions from 2026-09-01, after strikes on Saudi…
The the dollar & fx read — The dollar -4.20% against the yen in five days
Read the briefTuesday, September 8, 2026
August payrolls beat consensus by 106,000 on Friday and the dollar did not move against the yen for two sessions — 156.195, then 156.205
The the dollar & fx read — One pair moved, the broad dollar did not
Read the briefMonday, September 7, 2026
The United States struck Iranian oil tankers after Friday's close
Three haven markets were open across a weekend of strikes in the Gulf. Gold moved five hundredths of a per cent.
Read the briefSaturday, September 5, 2026
US August payrolls printed 162,000 against a 56,000 consensus, with unemployment holding 4.1% — a beat of nearly three times, on the print that…
The the dollar & fx read — Dollar fell on the week despite hawkish US news.
Read the briefFriday, September 4, 2026
Everything priced in dollars went up, and the dollar went down
The the dollar & fx read — Everything priced in dollars rose because the dollar fell.
Read the briefThursday, August 27, 2026
Brent fell 0.84% to $87.84 — a third straight lower close and 6.94% below where it settled on 2026-08-21, its lowest close in 9 sessions — as Iran…
Crude gave back its war premium for a third session and every maturity sold anyway — 2026-08-26 settled close
Read the briefThursday, August 20, 2026
The 30-year fell to 5.20% and the dollar fell with it — EUR/USD +0.86%, USD/JPY -0.80%
Settled session 2026-08-19 · duration, havens and risk all bid · the dollar paid
Read the briefMonday, August 17, 2026
No cash session has printed since Friday
Peace made a new high and passage a new low over a weekend with no cash session — and the storage band reversed
Read the briefSunday, August 9, 2026
The week ended with the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64 and the VIX at 14.90, its lowest of the year, on the heaviest week for options volume on record
De-escalation in price, blockade in practice — the energy complex splits in two
Read the briefSaturday, August 8, 2026
A soft July payroll drained the September hike out of the market: the dollar closed at its lowest since May and short Treasuries capped their best…
A soft payroll eased the path for rates — onto a sector that has just changed how it funds itself
Read the briefFriday, August 7, 2026
Gold closed at $4,396.20, up 2.25% on the day and its strongest week since January, with silver up 3.02% to $63.47
The the dollar & fx read — Hike talk arrived and the dollar weakened.
Read the briefSaturday, August 1, 2026
One market changed its mind twice this week; the other never changed it at all
The the dollar & fx read — Yields up and the dollar down, four sessions from four.
Read the briefFriday, July 31, 2026
Equities ripped and vol broke - the Nasdaq ~+2.0%, the VIX ~-23% to ~16 - while investors sorted AI winners violently: Amazon ~+14%, Apple ~-9% on…
Friday 2026-07-31 - equities melted up and sorted AI winners violently while the curve steepened and the dollar cracked: the credibility discount widened through the rally
Read the briefThursday, July 30, 2026
THE BOND MARKET CALLED THE FED'S BLUFF
The the dollar & fx read — It fell as long rates rose - an unusual pairing.
Read the briefWednesday, July 8, 2026
The regime flipped: Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire OVER and the US resumed 'powerful strikes' after Hormuz tanker attacks (threat 'severe')
Wednesday 2026-07-08 - the ceasefire ends, oil spikes, and an oil-led risk-off slams the rate ceiling back through 5%
Read the briefTuesday, July 7, 2026
A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets - and the tone tilted dovish into Tuesday
The the dollar & fx read — Gold held near its two-week high, capped by a firm dollar.
Read the briefSaturday, July 4, 2026
US markets were closed for Independence Day (4 July, a Saturday) - but the markets that never shut kept moving
The the dollar & fx read — A soft dollar held even without a US session.
Read the briefFriday, July 3, 2026
Wall Street's profit forecasts are rising at the fastest pace since the Covid rebound - enough for the FT to warn of an 'earnings bubble' - and…
Friday 2026-07-03 - markets as of the 3 July session
Read the briefThursday, July 2, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have DIPPED - and the FX/crypto tape read a green light: the dollar fell ~0.7% to 100.7, the yen recovered…
The the dollar & fx read — The dollar fell first on the softer inflation read.
Read the briefWednesday, July 1, 2026
Trump vowed to 'annihilate' Iran - and the safe-haven bid went into GOLD ($4,036, +1.6%; COT net-long a record-scale 115,395), NOT oil (WTI -2%)
The the dollar & fx read — A yen near a forty-year low keeps intervention in view.
Read the brief