Theme updated Oct 8
Rates & bonds
Yields, the curve, central banks and inflation — the discount rate on everything.
72 mornings covered rates & bonds this year
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Fewer tankers than normal left the Gulf for a third day with data
The rates & bonds read — Bitcoin fell; dollar-yield deposits on-chain kept growing.
Read the briefTuesday, October 6, 2026
On Monday the Bovespa rose 7.7% to a record and the real gained 4.4% against the dollar, its biggest one-day rise in eight years
The rates & bonds read — Local traders now expect a rate cut in December.
Read the briefSaturday, October 3, 2026
The US added 29,000 jobs in September against about 90,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%
The rates & bonds read — Ten-year yield fell on the news, then closed higher.
Read the briefFriday, October 2, 2026
Brent rose more than 4% on Thursday, and Europe paid for it in its currency and its banks
The rates & bonds read — Euro down against dollar and franc despite rates.
Read the briefThursday, October 1, 2026
US inflation came in below forecast on Wednesday, and long-term rates rose anyway: the thirty-year Treasury closed the quarter at its highest…
The rates & bonds read — Thirty-year rate ended the quarter at a 24-year high.
Read the briefWednesday, September 30, 2026
Crude fell about 3.5% on Tuesday, and the US thirty-year still closed at another high last seen in 2002
The rates & bonds read — Cut rates and subsidised mortgages as others tightened.
Read the briefTuesday, September 29, 2026
On the day Washington spurned Iran's offer and Brent rose, gold fell 3.5% — its worst day since June — and silver 4.8%
The rates & bonds read — Thirty-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2002.
Read the briefMonday, September 28, 2026
Over nine sessions to Friday's close the five largest listed private-credit managers fell between 5.2% and 10.6% while the S&P 500 rose 1.6%
The rates & bonds read — Safe long-term bonds now compete with locked-up credit funds.
Read the briefSunday, September 27, 2026
Brent fell 2.14% on Friday on Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz within a week, and the thirty-year Treasury still closed at 5.50%
The rates & bonds read — Long-term US borrowing costs rose without needing oil.
Read the briefSaturday, September 26, 2026
Iran offered a plan to reopen Hormuz within a week and Brent fell 2.14%
The rates & bonds read — The thirty-year yield rose while oil fell.
Read the briefFriday, September 25, 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.46%, its highest since 2004, and led the 5-year for the first time this week
The rates & bonds read — Thirty-year US borrowing costs are the highest since 2004.
Read the briefThursday, September 24, 2026
The 5-year Treasury yield rose 16 basis points to 5.00% and the 10-year 15 to 5.12%
The rates & bonds read — Borrowing costs hit their highest in about two decades.
Read the briefWednesday, September 23, 2026
Brent settled at $99.25 (-1.09%), its first finish under $100 since 8 September
The rates & bonds read — A Fed voice says one increase may not be enough.
Read the briefTuesday, September 22, 2026
Brent settled at $100.34 (-3.40%), down 7.73% across four sessions; the Nasdaq closed 27,122 (+2.26%) and bitcoin $86,586 (+6.70%)
The rates & bonds read — The long end took almost none of the oil move.
Read the briefMonday, September 21, 2026
Friday settled with the S&P 500 at 7,650.50 +0.17%, the Nasdaq at 26,522.55 +0.39% and the Dow at 51,682.64 -0.18% — a third consecutive losing…
The rates & bonds read — Cash pays the most it has all cycle
Read the briefSunday, September 20, 2026
Three central banks moved inside five sessions: the Federal Reserve to 4.00% on 16 September, the Bank of England holding at 3.75% on the 17th,…
The rates & bonds read — The long end — debt repaid furthest out — ignored the hike
Read the briefSaturday, September 19, 2026
The ten-year Treasury yield settled at 5.00% on Friday and the five-year at 4.86%, back above its level before Wednesday's hike
The rates & bonds read — Ten-year at five per cent
Read the briefFriday, September 18, 2026
A day after the Federal Reserve's first increase since 2023, the S&P 500 rose 1.14% to 7,637.76 and the Nasdaq 1.69%
The rates & bonds read — Five-year yield below its pre-decision level
Read the briefThursday, September 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve raised its policy range to 3.75–4.00% on 2026-09-16, its first increase since 2023, and signalled one more before year-end
The rates & bonds read — A hike the long bond rewarded rather than feared
Read the briefWednesday, September 16, 2026
Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia carried Brent to $108.75 and WTI to $105.83 on the settled session of 2026-09-15, the barrel's fifth straight…
The rates & bonds read — Ten-year at five per cent, short end still leading
Read the briefTuesday, September 15, 2026
On Monday the ten-year Treasury yield traded above 5% for the first time since 2023, then settled at 4.96%, lower on the day
The rates & bonds read — The thirty-year moved least while the ten-year made headlines
Read the briefMonday, September 14, 2026
Over the weekend the heads of Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI asked their own industry to slow the pace of its most advanced models, OpenAI shelved a…
The rates & bonds read — The ten-year Treasury sits near five per cent
Read the briefSunday, September 13, 2026
The August consumer price index landed exactly on forecast at the headline — 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year — and the annual core rate…
The rates & bonds read — The report matched forecasts; household expectations did not
Read the briefSaturday, September 12, 2026
Crude settled above a hundred dollars for a second session — WTI $100.05 and Brent $104.61, carrying the barrel +9.37% across the five settled…
The rates & bonds read — The short end moved twice as much as the long end
Read the briefFriday, September 11, 2026
Crude ran better than six per cent in a single session to $102.48 and Brent settled at $107.63, carrying the barrel +12.60% across six settled…
The rates & bonds read — Short-dated yields led — a policy move, not a panic
Read the briefThursday, September 10, 2026
Brent settled $101.21 on 2026-09-09 — its first close above one hundred dollars since 2026-07-23 and its highest since 2026-05-22 — +1.83% on the…
The rates & bonds read — A rate rise arriving into factories already slowing
Read the briefWednesday, September 9, 2026
Brent settled $99.39 on 2026-09-08, +2.24% on the session and +5.01% across the five settled sessions from 2026-09-01, after strikes on Saudi…
The rates & bonds read — Four central banks expected to raise inside nine days
Read the briefTuesday, September 8, 2026
August payrolls beat consensus by 106,000 on Friday and the dollar did not move against the yen for two sessions — 156.195, then 156.205
The rates & bonds read — Europe and Japan are now setting the pace
Read the briefMonday, September 7, 2026
The United States struck Iranian oil tankers after Friday's close
The rates & bonds read — Trading as a rate instrument, not as insurance
Read the briefSunday, September 6, 2026
Markets closed on Friday having made up their mind about the week
The rates & bonds read — Short-term borrowing costs took the whole adjustment
Read the briefSaturday, September 5, 2026
US August payrolls printed 162,000 against a 56,000 consensus, with unemployment holding 4.1% — a beat of nearly three times, on the print that…
The rates & bonds read — Only short-dated bonds took the news.
Read the briefFriday, September 4, 2026
Everything priced in dollars went up, and the dollar went down
The rates & bonds read — A rise is still expected on 16 September despite the weak hiring.
Read the briefThursday, September 3, 2026
Crude held what it took
The rates & bonds read — Borrowing costs rose worldwide, and stayed up
Read the briefWednesday, September 2, 2026
The settled session of Tuesday 2026-09-01 priced a war and refused to hedge it
The rates & bonds read — The whole curve rose worldwide, not just America's
Read the briefTuesday, September 1, 2026
The settled session of Monday 2026-08-31 was an energy scare that the metals refused to join: WTI +2.78% to $85.76 and Brent +2.71% to $90.49…
The rates & bonds read — Where the whole move was actually paid for
Read the briefThursday, August 27, 2026
Brent fell 0.84% to $87.84 — a third straight lower close and 6.94% below where it settled on 2026-08-21, its lowest close in 9 sessions — as Iran…
Crude gave back its war premium for a third session and every maturity sold anyway — 2026-08-26 settled close
Read the briefWednesday, August 26, 2026
Brent fell 3.89% to $88.58 and WTI 3.12% to $82.36 on the session Washington declared the Strait of Hormuz cleared of mines — Brent's largest…
The rates & bonds read — Only the maturity the government buys actually rallied.
Read the briefTuesday, August 25, 2026
Monday settled split
The rates & bonds read — Only the maturity the Treasury buys actually rallied.
Read the briefMonday, August 24, 2026
Friday reversed the week without redeeming it
The rates & bonds read — The Treasury bought its own bonds; yields finished unchanged.
Read the briefFriday, August 21, 2026
Washington said its buybacks would get bigger and the long bond got sold anyway: the 30-year settled at 5.24% and the 10-year at 4.70%, both…
Settled session 2026-08-20 · the curve rose against an enlarged buyback · silver led the metals
Read the briefThursday, August 20, 2026
The 30-year fell to 5.20% and the dollar fell with it — EUR/USD +0.86%, USD/JPY -0.80%
The rates & bonds read — Yield fell where the buying landed, not elsewhere
Read the briefWednesday, August 19, 2026
Equities fell a third straight session and the selling was concentrated where the discount rate bites hardest: the Nasdaq -1.33%, the S&P 500…
The rates & bonds read — Eased slightly from a nineteen-year high
Read the briefMonday, August 17, 2026
No cash session has printed since Friday
Peace made a new high and passage a new low over a weekend with no cash session — and the storage band reversed
Read the briefSaturday, August 15, 2026
Friday gave the week to oil and took it back from everything else
The rates & bonds read — Now borrowed money, so the bond market prices it
Read the briefFriday, August 14, 2026
Thursday settled firm and settled narrow
The rates & bonds read — Long-term borrowing costs are arguing about something else
Read the briefThursday, August 13, 2026
July inflation landed exactly where it was supposed to: consumer prices up 0.1% on the month, the annual rate 3.4%, core 0.2% and 2.5% — every…
The rates & bonds read — Silver leading gold points at rates, not war
Read the briefWednesday, August 12, 2026
Crude took the week: WTI settled $83.20, +1.30% on the day and +6.4% from Friday's close, with Brent at $88.91 — a third straight gain, and more…
The rates & bonds read — The long end treats energy as a price problem
Read the briefTuesday, August 11, 2026
Monday was the first full session since Friday and it moved one thing violently: WTI settled $82.13, +5.05% on the day, Brent $87.72, +4.99%,…
The rates & bonds read — A US inflation reading on Wednesday sets the tone.
Read the briefMonday, August 10, 2026
Friday's settled close still stands as the last full session: the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64, its best week since April, with the 30-year at…
The rates & bonds read — The argument this week is about a rise, not a cut.
Read the briefSunday, August 9, 2026
The week ended with the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64 and the VIX at 14.90, its lowest of the year, on the heaviest week for options volume on record
The rates & bonds read — The next move is still argued as a rise, not a cut.
Read the briefSaturday, August 8, 2026
A soft July payroll drained the September hike out of the market: the dollar closed at its lowest since May and short Treasuries capped their best…
The rates & bonds read — Softer data eased rates; the institutional dispute is separate
Read the briefFriday, August 7, 2026
Gold closed at $4,396.20, up 2.25% on the day and its strongest week since January, with silver up 3.02% to $63.47
The rates & bonds read — Hike talk arrived and the dollar weakened.
Read the briefFriday, July 31, 2026
Equities ripped and vol broke - the Nasdaq ~+2.0%, the VIX ~-23% to ~16 - while investors sorted AI winners violently: Amazon ~+14%, Apple ~-9% on…
Friday 2026-07-31 - equities melted up and sorted AI winners violently while the curve steepened and the dollar cracked: the credibility discount widened through the rally
Read the briefThursday, July 30, 2026
THE BOND MARKET CALLED THE FED'S BLUFF
The rates & bonds read — A divided Fed held; borrowing costs hit a 19-year high.
Read the briefWednesday, July 22, 2026
THE RE-SPIKE - OIL TO $94, GOLD TO A RECORD, THE WAR ENTRENCHES
Wednesday 2026-07-22 - the diplomatic flicker died and the Iran war entrenched (a 10th night, a widening front to Saudi Arabia, a nuclear-site threat), sending Brent to $94 (Goldman eyes $120) and gold to a record above $4,100; a chip-led equity bounce runs against it
Read the briefMonday, July 20, 2026
THE WAR WENT KINETIC - OIL'S BIGGEST JUMP IN SIX YEARS
The rates & bonds read — Silver bid, gold steadied - a real risk event, not rates.
Read the briefSaturday, July 18, 2026
THE WEEK THE AI TRADE CRACKED - AND THE OIL SHOCK CAME BACK
Saturday 2026-07-18 - the week's midweek relief (a benign CPI, a walked-back Hormuz toll) broke Friday on its two ignored risks: a cheap Chinese AI model sent chips into a bear market, and the discounted oil shock returned with Brent at $88
Read the briefThursday, July 16, 2026
TACO TUESDAY - THE TOLL'S GONE, THE WAR ISN'T
Thursday 2026-07-16 - Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz toll and, with a benign CPI and upbeat bank earnings, stocks bid and the war premium unwinds - but a fourth night of strikes keeps the Strait shut and oil near $80: the headline tax is gone, the supply shock isn't
Read the briefWednesday, July 15, 2026
THE CAPPED RELIEF. June CPI came in benign - headline -0.4% m/m (the first outright drop since the 2020 pandemic), annual 3.5% from 4.2% - which…
The rates & bonds read — June inflation fell - the first outright drop since 2020.
Read the briefMonday, July 13, 2026
The verdict week opens RISK-OFF: the US and Iran are fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz, so oil SPIKED ~4% (WTI ~$74, Brent ~$79) and…
The rates & bonds read — Bank earnings and CPI open the verdict week, oil-lensed.
Read the briefSaturday, July 11, 2026
A week of narrative whiplash ended at S&P highs - but read what the index hides
The rates & bonds read — Next week's CPI and bank earnings are the verdict.
Read the briefFriday, July 10, 2026
The oil shock is round-tripping
The rates & bonds read — Yields eased, but the Fed is split and real yields high.
Read the briefThursday, July 9, 2026
Yesterday's shock is now a trend
The rates & bonds read — An oil shock and hawkish Fed minutes pin the ceiling.
Read the briefWednesday, July 8, 2026
The regime flipped: Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire OVER and the US resumed 'powerful strikes' after Hormuz tanker attacks (threat 'severe')
The rates & bonds read — The oil shock pushed the long end back through five percent.
Read the briefTuesday, July 7, 2026
A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets - and the tone tilted dovish into Tuesday
The rates & bonds read — A soft jobs print eased Fed-hike bets and the long end.
Read the briefMonday, July 6, 2026
Monday's reopen answered the weekend - and it wasn't holiday liquidity: the hard-asset bid HELD
The rates & bonds read — The one thing that didn't rally: the thirty-year at five percent.
Read the briefThursday, July 2, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have DIPPED - and the FX/crypto tape read a green light: the dollar fell ~0.7% to 100.7, the yen recovered…
The rates & bonds read — The dollar fell first on the softer inflation read.
Read the briefWednesday, July 1, 2026
Trump vowed to 'annihilate' Iran - and the safe-haven bid went into GOLD ($4,036, +1.6%; COT net-long a record-scale 115,395), NOT oil (WTI -2%)
The rates & bonds read — The 30-year keeps pushing toward five percent.
Read the briefMonday, June 22, 2026
The market keeps pricing the US-Iran conflict as resolved, and it keeps fraying - today's tape reads 'deal under strain, once again.' Prediction…
Monday 2026-06-22 - week ahead; markets as of the 18 June session
Read the briefSunday, June 21, 2026
The AI trade hit records the week the Fed scrapped its plan to cut — a contradiction that won't hold, and the reason to own the resolution hedged
Sunday 2026-06-21 — markets as of the 18 June session
Read the briefSaturday, June 20, 2026
MSCI EM +3.3% while STOXX 600 -1.1% — the widest single-session DM/EM divergence in months
Emerging markets outperform sharply as US short rates rise and European equities retreat.
Read the briefThursday, June 18, 2026
The Federal Reserve's removal of dovish guidance and a live maritime crisis in the Gulf have combined to push equities, gold, and credit spreads…
Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf.
Read the brief