Theme updated Aug 26
Rates & bonds
Yields, the curve, central banks and inflation — the discount rate on everything.
36 mornings covered rates & bonds this year
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Brent fell 3.89% to $88.58 and WTI 3.12% to $82.36 on the session Washington declared the Strait of Hormuz cleared of mines — Brent's largest…
The rates & bonds read — Only the maturity the government buys actually rallied.
Read the briefTuesday, August 25, 2026
Monday settled split
The rates & bonds read — Only the maturity the Treasury buys actually rallied.
Read the briefMonday, August 24, 2026
Friday reversed the week without redeeming it
The rates & bonds read — The Treasury bought its own bonds; yields finished unchanged.
Read the briefFriday, August 21, 2026
Washington said its buybacks would get bigger and the long bond got sold anyway: the 30-year settled at 5.24% and the 10-year at 4.70%, both…
Settled session 2026-08-20 · the curve rose against an enlarged buyback · silver led the metals
Read the briefThursday, August 20, 2026
The 30-year fell to 5.20% and the dollar fell with it — EUR/USD +0.86%, USD/JPY -0.80%
The rates & bonds read — Yield fell where the buying landed, not elsewhere
Read the briefWednesday, August 19, 2026
Equities fell a third straight session and the selling was concentrated where the discount rate bites hardest: the Nasdaq -1.33%, the S&P 500…
The rates & bonds read — Eased slightly from a nineteen-year high
Read the briefMonday, August 17, 2026
No cash session has printed since Friday
Peace made a new high and passage a new low over a weekend with no cash session — and the storage band reversed
Read the briefSaturday, August 15, 2026
Friday gave the week to oil and took it back from everything else
The rates & bonds read — Now borrowed money, so the bond market prices it
Read the briefFriday, August 14, 2026
Thursday settled firm and settled narrow
The rates & bonds read — Long-term borrowing costs are arguing about something else
Read the briefThursday, August 13, 2026
July inflation landed exactly where it was supposed to: consumer prices up 0.1% on the month, the annual rate 3.4%, core 0.2% and 2.5% — every…
The rates & bonds read — Silver leading gold points at rates, not war
Read the briefWednesday, August 12, 2026
Crude took the week: WTI settled $83.20, +1.30% on the day and +6.4% from Friday's close, with Brent at $88.91 — a third straight gain, and more…
The rates & bonds read — The long end treats energy as a price problem
Read the briefTuesday, August 11, 2026
Monday was the first full session since Friday and it moved one thing violently: WTI settled $82.13, +5.05% on the day, Brent $87.72, +4.99%,…
The rates & bonds read — A US inflation reading on Wednesday sets the tone.
Read the briefMonday, August 10, 2026
Friday's settled close still stands as the last full session: the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64, its best week since April, with the 30-year at…
The rates & bonds read — The argument this week is about a rise, not a cut.
Read the briefSunday, August 9, 2026
The week ended with the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64 and the VIX at 14.90, its lowest of the year, on the heaviest week for options volume on record
The rates & bonds read — The next move is still argued as a rise, not a cut.
Read the briefSaturday, August 8, 2026
A soft July payroll drained the September hike out of the market: the dollar closed at its lowest since May and short Treasuries capped their best…
The rates & bonds read — Softer data eased rates; the institutional dispute is separate
Read the briefFriday, August 7, 2026
Gold closed at $4,396.20, up 2.25% on the day and its strongest week since January, with silver up 3.02% to $63.47
The rates & bonds read — Hike talk arrived and the dollar weakened.
Read the briefFriday, July 31, 2026
Equities ripped and vol broke - the Nasdaq ~+2.0%, the VIX ~-23% to ~16 - while investors sorted AI winners violently: Amazon ~+14%, Apple ~-9% on…
Friday 2026-07-31 - equities melted up and sorted AI winners violently while the curve steepened and the dollar cracked: the credibility discount widened through the rally
Read the briefThursday, July 30, 2026
THE BOND MARKET CALLED THE FED'S BLUFF
The rates & bonds read — A divided Fed held; borrowing costs hit a 19-year high.
Read the briefWednesday, July 22, 2026
THE RE-SPIKE - OIL TO $94, GOLD TO A RECORD, THE WAR ENTRENCHES
Wednesday 2026-07-22 - the diplomatic flicker died and the Iran war entrenched (a 10th night, a widening front to Saudi Arabia, a nuclear-site threat), sending Brent to $94 (Goldman eyes $120) and gold to a record above $4,100; a chip-led equity bounce runs against it
Read the briefMonday, July 20, 2026
THE WAR WENT KINETIC - OIL'S BIGGEST JUMP IN SIX YEARS
The rates & bonds read — Silver bid, gold steadied - a real risk event, not rates.
Read the briefSaturday, July 18, 2026
THE WEEK THE AI TRADE CRACKED - AND THE OIL SHOCK CAME BACK
Saturday 2026-07-18 - the week's midweek relief (a benign CPI, a walked-back Hormuz toll) broke Friday on its two ignored risks: a cheap Chinese AI model sent chips into a bear market, and the discounted oil shock returned with Brent at $88
Read the briefThursday, July 16, 2026
TACO TUESDAY - THE TOLL'S GONE, THE WAR ISN'T
Thursday 2026-07-16 - Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz toll and, with a benign CPI and upbeat bank earnings, stocks bid and the war premium unwinds - but a fourth night of strikes keeps the Strait shut and oil near $80: the headline tax is gone, the supply shock isn't
Read the briefWednesday, July 15, 2026
THE CAPPED RELIEF. June CPI came in benign - headline -0.4% m/m (the first outright drop since the 2020 pandemic), annual 3.5% from 4.2% - which…
The rates & bonds read — June inflation fell - the first outright drop since 2020.
Read the briefMonday, July 13, 2026
The verdict week opens RISK-OFF: the US and Iran are fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz, so oil SPIKED ~4% (WTI ~$74, Brent ~$79) and…
The rates & bonds read — Bank earnings and CPI open the verdict week, oil-lensed.
Read the briefSaturday, July 11, 2026
A week of narrative whiplash ended at S&P highs - but read what the index hides
The rates & bonds read — Next week's CPI and bank earnings are the verdict.
Read the briefFriday, July 10, 2026
The oil shock is round-tripping
The rates & bonds read — Yields eased, but the Fed is split and real yields high.
Read the briefThursday, July 9, 2026
Yesterday's shock is now a trend
The rates & bonds read — An oil shock and hawkish Fed minutes pin the ceiling.
Read the briefWednesday, July 8, 2026
The regime flipped: Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire OVER and the US resumed 'powerful strikes' after Hormuz tanker attacks (threat 'severe')
The rates & bonds read — The oil shock pushed the long end back through five percent.
Read the briefTuesday, July 7, 2026
A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets - and the tone tilted dovish into Tuesday
The rates & bonds read — A soft jobs print eased Fed-hike bets and the long end.
Read the briefMonday, July 6, 2026
Monday's reopen answered the weekend - and it wasn't holiday liquidity: the hard-asset bid HELD
The rates & bonds read — The one thing that didn't rally: the thirty-year at five percent.
Read the briefThursday, July 2, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have DIPPED - and the FX/crypto tape read a green light: the dollar fell ~0.7% to 100.7, the yen recovered…
The rates & bonds read — The dollar fell first on the softer inflation read.
Read the briefWednesday, July 1, 2026
Trump vowed to 'annihilate' Iran - and the safe-haven bid went into GOLD ($4,036, +1.6%; COT net-long a record-scale 115,395), NOT oil (WTI -2%)
The rates & bonds read — The 30-year keeps pushing toward five percent.
Read the briefMonday, June 22, 2026
The market keeps pricing the US-Iran conflict as resolved, and it keeps fraying - today's tape reads 'deal under strain, once again.' Prediction…
Monday 2026-06-22 - week ahead; markets as of the 18 June session
Read the briefSunday, June 21, 2026
The AI trade hit records the week the Fed scrapped its plan to cut — a contradiction that won't hold, and the reason to own the resolution hedged
Sunday 2026-06-21 — markets as of the 18 June session
Read the briefSaturday, June 20, 2026
MSCI EM +3.3% while STOXX 600 -1.1% — the widest single-session DM/EM divergence in months
Emerging markets outperform sharply as US short rates rise and European equities retreat.
Read the briefThursday, June 18, 2026
The Federal Reserve's removal of dovish guidance and a live maritime crisis in the Gulf have combined to push equities, gold, and credit spreads…
Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf.
Read the brief