The flicker died, oil hit $94, and gold made a record.

The re-spike is here, and it arrived through the door yesterday's brief left open. The flicker of possible Iran-US talks that lifted Tuesday is gone; in its place is a war that has entrenched and widened. The US struck Iran for a 10th consecutive night, Iran hit a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that forced its crew to abandon ship and struck US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and - a new front - the IRGC claimed an attack on Amazon's cloud infrastructure in Bahrain. The conflict is spreading beyond the Gulf: the Houthis opened a second front by threatening a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and widening a Red Sea shipping confrontation, and President Trump escalated to threatening a strike on Iran's nuclear-linked site. Neither side is backing down, and Qatar and Pakistan have launched what one outlet called a desperate mediation.

Oil re-priced the risk immediately. Brent jumped about 5.5% to roughly $94 and WTI about 5% to roughly $87, Goldman Sachs said Brent could top $120 if the Hormuz disruptions persist, and Asia's oil buyers now face a $100-a-barrel risk as the Houthis threaten the Saudi route. With the Strait effectively closed - vessel traffic has slumped since the blockade took effect - and China refusing to spend reserves to cushion the hit, Foreign Policy's warning stands: depleted reserves make an oil spike more likely this time, not less. Inflation fears are back on the table, and Treasury yields rose again (the 10-year toward 4.63%) as the oil impulse re-loaded them.

Gold confirmed all of it. It surged past $4,100 to a record - up about 1.2% - and silver rose about 1.3%, the entrenched haven bid of the past two days turning into a full-blown rally. A gold record on the same tape as a $94 barrel is the market pricing a genuine, sustained risk-and-inflation shock, not a passing scare - and it is the clearest vindication yet of the metals-as-the-tell read.

And yet the equity tape split. Chip stocks rebounded - US indices snapped a three-day AI-rout losing streak, China's 'national team' supported its market, and TSMC is both raising prices up to 10% from 2027 and adding $100bn in Arizona - so futures point higher even as oil rips. That divergence is the day's puzzle: a chip-led bounce running against an intensifying war-and-oil shock, with China simultaneously weighing tighter export controls on AI models and chips.

The steelman for the bounce: the chip rout was overdone and due a rebound, an Iran-US or Qatar/Pakistan-brokered de-escalation could round-trip the oil shock, and strong mega-cap earnings (Alphabet, Tesla this week) could extend the equity recovery. The read is wrong if the war de-escalates and oil round-trips. But conviction is high that the oil-and-inflation shock is real and sustained - a gold record and a $94 barrel do not lie - and that the chip bounce is the counter-trend, not the main story. The read to carry: the re-spike arrived, so hold energy and the metals (gold at a record, Goldman eyeing $120), treat the chip rebound as a bounce to be tested by the oil shock and Alphabet's earnings, and watch the war's widening (Houthis, the nuclear threat) and the barrel toward $100.