Energy flow · Low
86.2
Tanker and LNG traffic through the world's oil chokepoints.
1d +0.17d 0.0confidence 60%
- Tankers tracked
- 3,565
- LNG carriers
- 271
- Through Hormuz
- 181
Measured 2026-10-08
Signals
The physical world, measured before the narrative settles.
Three proprietary gauges plus the Risk Radar. Every signal carries a reason, a timestamp and a condition that would change the reading.
Global trade activity · High
35.3
Container and cargo throughput — weeks ahead of official prints.
1d -12.47d -10.7confidence 40%
- Vessel movements
- 11,319
- Chokepoint transits
- 550
- Port throughput
- 0
- Cargo flights
- 1,690
Measured 2026-10-08
Supply chain stress · Moderate
40
Where goods are getting stuck and downstream pressure is building.
1d -28.07d -34.4confidence 50%
- Queued at chokepoints
- 60
- Ports under stress
- 0
- Congestion vs normal
- 0
- Airport anomalies
- 810
Measured 2026-10-08
Each gauge is a 0–100 composite built from measured activity — vessel and tanker movement, chokepoint transits, port throughput, cargo flights — not from sentiment or survey. The components behind each reading are listed on the card, and the confidence shown is the model’s own.
Risk radar
Impact × probability.
Not a mood board. Each risk carries a stable identity, its movement since the last appearance, and the reason it would matter.
French fiscal strain spreads to the euro
impact highprobability mediumtrend stableReuters ties the euro's fall to France's debt burden; UBS's chief executive says hard measures are needed; student unrest is spreading. The scenario is a French spread move large enough to change how investors price the euro as a whole. Carried 6 October at medium probability, high impact and rising; held at stable because German yields also rose, which says the move was not yet a flight from France to Germany.
The ten-year breaks above its 2002 high
impact highprobability mediumtrend stableThe ten-year closed at 5.28%, a few basis points below Monday's high, with Asian markets noting yields near multi-decade highs and the FT asking whether Treasuries are losing their role as money. The scenario is a new high that pulls more capital into dollars. Carried 7 October at medium probability, high impact and stable; unchanged.
Oil exporters short of dollars follow Iraq
impact mediumprobability mediumtrend risingIraq devalued as its export routes were disrupted; India raised rates by a quarter point; Libya's central bank is in crisis. The scenario is other producers that depend on the strait running short of dollars and adjusting their currencies. Carried 7 October for India at low probability and stable; re-pointed to oil exporters and raised to medium and rising after the devaluation.
Bitcoin breaks lower as dollar yield draws savings
impact mediumprobability mediumtrend stableBitcoin fell below $84,000, a second Ethereum layer-2 network shut in a week, and the US government moved coins between wallets. The scenario is a deeper fall as holders keep moving into dollar-yield products. Carried 22 September at medium probability, medium impact and rising; back on the radar at stable.
The Gulf supply loss reaches the oil price at once
impact severeprobability mediumtrend risingIran has stepped up attacks on shipping, Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia continue, and the engine's Gulf departures have run below their average for three covered days while Brent stayed flat. The scenario is crude repricing in a single move once stockpile releases stop covering the shortfall, rather than gradually. Carried 7 October at medium probability, severe impact and rising; kept rising as our 4 October test fired.