Energy flow · Low
92.9
Tanker and LNG traffic through the world's oil chokepoints.
1d +3.47d +16.7confidence 60%
- Tankers tracked
- 3,864
- LNG carriers
- 304
- Through Hormuz
- 327
Measured 2026-08-24
Signals
The physical world, measured before the narrative settles.
Three proprietary gauges plus the Risk Radar. Every signal carries a reason, a timestamp and a condition that would change the reading.
Global trade activity · High
41.4
Container and cargo throughput — weeks ahead of official prints.
1d -6.97d +4.5confidence 40%
- Vessel movements
- 12,680
- Chokepoint transits
- 576
- Port throughput
- 0
- Cargo flights
- 1,681
Measured 2026-08-24
Supply chain stress · Moderate
40
Where goods are getting stuck and downstream pressure is building.
1d -53.07d -30.3confidence 50%
- Queued at chokepoints
- 69
- Ports under stress
- 0
- Congestion vs normal
- 0
- Airport anomalies
- 638
Measured 2026-08-24
Each gauge is a 0–100 composite built from measured activity — vessel and tanker movement, chokepoint transits, port throughput, cargo flights — not from sentiment or survey. The components behind each reading are listed on the card, and the confidence shown is the model’s own.
Risk radar
Impact × probability.
Not a mood board. Each risk carries a stable identity, its movement since the last appearance, and the reason it would matter.
Iranian cyber retaliation lands on European energy infrastructure
impact highprobability mediumtrend RisingA small UK generator was reportedly shut down for four days in July by hackers linked to Iran, around the time US agencies warned about actors targeting water facilities across at least seven states. Tehran has publicly dismissed the sanctions threat and said the campaign will fail. A financial offensive of the announced scale invites a response in the domain where Iran is cheapest to act, and that domain is not the strait.
Warsh re-establishes monetary authority too convincingly
impact highprobability mediumtrend StableThis is the risk to our own read, stated as such. The brief argues that official price-setting has stopped clearing. A Jackson Hole address that credibly separates the central bank's balance sheet from the Treasury's financing need would invalidate that, and would do it by tightening financial conditions rather than easing them. A restoration of authority is not automatically the benign outcome it sounds like.
Gulf sovereign retrenchment withdraws a bid nobody marks
impact mediumprobability hightrend RisingQatar is cutting state spending at home and abroad as the war shrinks its economy, and the UAE has cut its commercial link to Iran entirely. Sovereign wealth from the region is the price-setting buyer in several illiquid markets that carry no daily mark, so the withdrawal becomes visible in transactions months after it is decided, not in the tape.
The US-Canada trade fight escalates while attention is elsewhere
impact lowprobability hightrend RisingWashington warned Ottawa it would be foolish to think it could win a trade war and predicted a devastating outcome; Canada is retaliating after talks failed, and futures opened the week on it. The direct macro effect is modest. The signal about willingness to use trade as a general instrument is not, and it is the item on this page most likely to be mispriced simply because the Gulf is occupying the attention.
Sanctions enforcement reaches Chinese buyers and becomes a trade conflict
impact severeprobability mediumtrend RisingThis brief argues about a sea lane; this risk is about the demand side of it. If enforcement targets the largest purchaser of Iranian crude, the question stops being how many hulls transit a strait and becomes whether the two largest economies will disrupt each other's trade over a third. That reprices freight, tariffs and the currency pair rather than only the barrel, and it is a scenario the thesis above does not contain.