The forecasts held. The price of money moved.

Demand trusted, financing priced

**The analysts did not blink.** Last week chip shares fell hard while the S&P 500 rose. The selling had a pattern. The companies that buy computing power with their own cash, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, rose. The companies that build it, lend for it or borrow to rent it out fell, and CoreWeave, the most dependent on borrowing, fell furthest.

The engine's analyst panel adds the part a price chart cannot show. Across 19 names in the AI hardware chain it recorded three rating changes this month, all upgrades, one of them on the worst day of the sell-off. Forecasters still expect the orders. What the market has started to charge for is the cost of funding them, which is the call we made on 11 October when large AI debt deals came to light.

That matters for this week. TSMC reports on Thursday and ASML on Wednesday, and both speak to demand, the question analysts already answer with confidence. The question the market is asking arrives through the lenders: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo report on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday, and the pending AI bond deals will price in the open.

Over the weekend the energy story took a political turn. Washington declared a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire that Russia broke within hours, and six senators challenged the diesel deal. On Saturday we said fuel bought through concessions carries a political expiry date; the expiry is now being tested daily. In the Gulf, Riyadh extended its airport closure amid a second attack.

The week also brings US consumer prices on Wednesday, consensus 3.6%, and the IMF meetings in Bangkok.

*Methodology.* Prices are Friday 9 October settlements; weekly changes run from Friday 2 October. The analyst panel counts Buy, Hold and Sell ratings per company from our data provider; it does not track price targets or earnings estimates, and its totals may differ from other public trackers. Early-Monday futures are described without figures because no session has settled.

Risk radar

What the desk is hedging.

severe impactmedium prob.

Washington joins the strikes on the Houthis

Riyadh has extended its airport closure amid a second attack, the Saudi-led coalition has vowed to respond, and President Trump says the US may join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. US forces also disabled a ship trying to run the Iran blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The scenario is direct US involvement in Yemen widening the war's target set to Red Sea shipping and Saudi export routes. Carried 11 October at medium probability, severe impact and rising; still rising.

high impactmedium prob.

The energy truce collapses and refinery strikes resume

The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire declared on Saturday was followed within hours by a strike on a Kharkiv power plant. The scenario is a formal collapse, with Ukraine resuming refinery strikes and Washington cutting arms in response, leaving the diesel deal without the extra Russian refining it implicitly relies on. Last carried 15 September at medium probability, medium impact and rising; raised to high impact.

high impactmedium prob.

Italy follows France into the bond market's sights

Goldman Sachs flags Italy's widening deficit as the next risk after France; Spain's El Mundo writes of the shift from the old periphery to a new one; Greek inflation printed 5% against 3.7% expected. The scenario is a widening of Italian spreads during the IMF meetings that pulls the euro and European banks lower. Carried 8 October at medium probability, high impact and stable; now rising.

high impactmedium prob.

A hot inflation print sends the ten-year to new highs

Consensus for September consumer prices is 3.6% against 3.4%, with core at 2.5%. Reuters lists four signs of a worse bond market. The scenario is a core surprise that pushes the ten-year above its recent range while corporate issuance is heavy. Carried 11 October at medium probability, high impact and stable; unchanged.

medium impactlow prob.

Fuel importers' currencies come under renewed pressure

The rupee firmed to about 95.6 per dollar from near 97 last week, and India's September inflation, consensus 4.9%, is due today. Nigeria is proposing a petrol price cap. The scenario is a renewed oil rise draining importers' reserves. Carried 11 October at medium probability, medium impact and stable; lowered to low and falling as the rupee recovered.

On watch this week

Spreads on the pending AI-related bond deals as they come to market.
What the big banks say on Tuesday and Wednesday about their underwriting pipeline and loans to data-centre builders.
TSMC's spending plans on Thursday, read against the week's fall in its shares.
Heating oil against Brent as the weekend's energy truce is tested.

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