Theme updated Aug 26

Oil & energy

Crude, gas and the energy complex — supply, OPEC, and the price of power.

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41 mornings covered oil & energy this year

Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Brent fell 3.89% to $88.58 and WTI 3.12% to $82.36 on the session Washington declared the Strait of Hormuz cleared of mines — Brent's largest…
The oil & energy read — Cheaper oil on a headline the shipping data contradicts.
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Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Monday settled split
The oil & energy read — Cheaper oil, but no market agreed it was peace.
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Monday, August 24, 2026
Friday reversed the week without redeeming it
The oil & energy read — More ships crossing is not more oil leaving.
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Friday, August 21, 2026
Washington said its buybacks would get bigger and the long bond got sold anyway: the 30-year settled at 5.24% and the 10-year at 4.70%, both…
The oil & energy read — The refining margin, not the barrel, reaches households
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Thursday, August 20, 2026
The 30-year fell to 5.20% and the dollar fell with it — EUR/USD +0.86%, USD/JPY -0.80%
The oil & energy read — Already repriced on 17 August; headlines no longer move it
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Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Equities fell a third straight session and the selling was concentrated where the discount rate bites hardest: the Nasdaq -1.33%, the S&P 500…
The oil & energy read — Rose, while the inland barrel fell
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Monday, August 17, 2026
No cash session has printed since Friday
The oil & energy read — Access sets this price now, not fear
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Saturday, August 15, 2026
Friday gave the week to oil and took it back from everything else
The oil & energy read — Access, not fear, is what sets this price now
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Friday, August 14, 2026
Thursday settled firm and settled narrow
The oil & energy read — The lane, not the war, is the open question now
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Thursday, August 13, 2026
July inflation landed exactly where it was supposed to: consumer prices up 0.1% on the month, the annual rate 3.4%, core 0.2% and 2.5% — every…
The oil & energy read — Flat through a diplomatic collapse it should have noticed
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Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Crude took the week: WTI settled $83.20, +1.30% on the day and +6.4% from Friday's close, with Brent at $88.91 — a third straight gain, and more…
The oil & energy read — Rising on the deal fading, not on fresh fighting
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Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Monday was the first full session since Friday and it moved one thing violently: WTI settled $82.13, +5.05% on the day, Brent $87.72, +4.99%,…
The oil & energy read — Rose while peace odds rose — that combination needs explaining.
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Monday, August 10, 2026
Friday's settled close still stands as the last full session: the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64, its best week since April, with the 30-year at…
The oil & energy read — Oil stayed calm while the reopening odds fell.
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Sunday, August 9, 2026
The week ended with the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64 and the VIX at 14.90, its lowest of the year, on the heaviest week for options volume on record
The oil & energy read — Rose while oil fell. That is not a war trade.
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Saturday, August 8, 2026
A soft July payroll drained the September hike out of the market: the dollar closed at its lowest since May and short Treasuries capped their best…
The oil & energy read — The scarcity sits in refining, not in crude
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Friday, August 7, 2026
Gold closed at $4,396.20, up 2.25% on the day and its strongest week since January, with silver up 3.02% to $63.47
Friday 2026-08-07 - the Fed talked about hiking and gold had its best week since January
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Thursday, August 6, 2026
Iran confirmed it is finalising an accord with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz and the President said a deal could come within days - after weeks…
Thursday 2026-08-06 - a Hormuz deal moved into final drafting and the metals had their best day of the week anyway
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Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Crude had its worst two sessions of the war: WTI fell 5.5% on Tuesday to $75.92, taking the two-day fall to 12.5%, after the President called off…
The oil & energy read — Down more than 12% in two sessions on a called-off strike.
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Thursday, July 30, 2026
THE BOND MARKET CALLED THE FED'S BLUFF
Thursday 2026-07-30 - a divided Fed held and the bond market pushed borrowing costs to a 19-year high while the dollar cracked and gold hit a record: a credibility discount, not a hawkish repricing; and the AI-capex reckoning split Microsoft from Meta
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Thursday, July 23, 2026
THE OIL SHOCK WON'T QUIT, AND BIG TECH'S AI BILL CAME DUE
The oil & energy read — A Red Sea tanker attack took Brent to $96.
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Wednesday, July 22, 2026
THE RE-SPIKE - OIL TO $94, GOLD TO A RECORD, THE WAR ENTRENCHES
The oil & energy read — Brent jumped to $94; Goldman eyes $120.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2026
AN UNEASY BOUNCE ON A DIPLOMATIC FLICKER
The oil & energy read — It grinds on; China won't spend reserves to cushion oil.
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Monday, July 20, 2026
THE WAR WENT KINETIC - OIL'S BIGGEST JUMP IN SIX YEARS
The oil & energy read — Brent hit $90 - the biggest jump in six years.
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Saturday, July 18, 2026
THE WEEK THE AI TRADE CRACKED - AND THE OIL SHOCK CAME BACK
The oil & energy read — Brent hit $88 as the war struck a Gulf state.
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Thursday, July 16, 2026
TACO TUESDAY - THE TOLL'S GONE, THE WAR ISN'T
Thursday 2026-07-16 - Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz toll and, with a benign CPI and upbeat bank earnings, stocks bid and the war premium unwinds - but a fourth night of strikes keeps the Strait shut and oil near $80: the headline tax is gone, the supply shock isn't
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Wednesday, July 15, 2026
THE CAPPED RELIEF. June CPI came in benign - headline -0.4% m/m (the first outright drop since the 2020 pandemic), annual 3.5% from 4.2% - which…
The oil & energy read — Trump's 20% Hormuz toll kept crude near $80.
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Monday, July 13, 2026
The verdict week opens RISK-OFF: the US and Iran are fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz, so oil SPIKED ~4% (WTI ~$74, Brent ~$79) and…
The oil & energy read — Crude spiked ~4% and stock futures slipped into the open.
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Saturday, July 11, 2026
A week of narrative whiplash ended at S&P highs - but read what the index hides
The oil & energy read — The IEA sees demand falling - a demand shock, not just supply.
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Friday, July 10, 2026
The oil shock is round-tripping
The oil & energy read — Iran signalled a deal; oil eased off its conflict peak.
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Thursday, July 9, 2026
Yesterday's shock is now a trend
The oil & energy read — An oil shock and hawkish Fed minutes pin the ceiling.
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Wednesday, July 8, 2026
The regime flipped: Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire OVER and the US resumed 'powerful strikes' after Hormuz tanker attacks (threat 'severe')
The oil & energy read — The US-Iran ceasefire ended; oil spiked on a Hormuz threat.
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Tuesday, July 7, 2026
A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets - and the tone tilted dovish into Tuesday
Tuesday 2026-07-07 - a soft jobs print eases the rate ceiling; watch the undercurrent beneath an AI-led tape
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Monday, July 6, 2026
Monday's reopen answered the weekend - and it wasn't holiday liquidity: the hard-asset bid HELD
The oil & energy read — A sudden oil glut is easing the last risk premium.
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Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Trump vowed to 'annihilate' Iran - and the safe-haven bid went into GOLD ($4,036, +1.6%; COT net-long a record-scale 115,395), NOT oil (WTI -2%)
The oil & energy read — Gold outpaced crude on the day's risk bid.
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Saturday, June 27, 2026
One session, two major sell-offs: the AI trade rolled back over (Oracle's worst week since the 2001 dot-com bust, on AI-FINANCING fears) and the…
Saturday 2026-06-27 - Friday 26 Jun wrap (session pending in our market feed)
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Friday, June 26, 2026
The market looked straight through a hot PCE - headline 4.1% (a 3-year high), core 3.4% above forecast - rallying the front end (2Y -8bps) and the…
Friday 2026-06-26 - markets as of the 25 June session
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Thursday, June 25, 2026
The disinflation trade arrived - oil -4.5%, gold -3%, the two-year -8bps as the front end pivots from higher-for-longer to pricing relief
Thursday 2026-06-25 - markets as of the 24 June session; PCE due today
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Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Two binary tests resolved in 24 hours and both broke the bull case: the AI trade cracked (semis -8%, Micron -13%) and the Iran deal became real…
Wednesday 2026-06-24 - markets as of the 23 June session
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Monday, June 22, 2026
The market keeps pricing the US-Iran conflict as resolved, and it keeps fraying - today's tape reads 'deal under strain, once again.' Prediction…
Monday 2026-06-22 - week ahead; markets as of the 18 June session
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Friday, June 19, 2026
Emerging markets surged +3.3% and the S&P 500 advanced as credit spreads tightened, but the US–Iran sanctions standoff and Japan's intervention…
Cyclicals and emerging markets outperform while US–Iran asset-freeze dispute keeps energy risk premia elevated.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Reports of an imminent U.S.-Iran signing ceremony sent Brent crude down 4.7% today, the session's dominant price signal and the clearest evidence…
Preliminary diplomatic agreement strips Middle East risk premium, reshaping commodity and credit markets today.
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Related themesEquities Geopolitics Gold ← All themes

Oil & energy

Brent fell 3.89% to $88.58 and WTI 3.12% to $82.36 on the session Washington declared the Strait of Hormuz cleared of mines — Brent's largest…

Monday settled split

Friday reversed the week without redeeming it

Washington said its buybacks would get bigger and the long bond got sold anyway: the 30-year settled at 5.24% and the 10-year at 4.70%, both…

The 30-year fell to 5.20% and the dollar fell with it — EUR/USD +0.86%, USD/JPY -0.80%

Equities fell a third straight session and the selling was concentrated where the discount rate bites hardest: the Nasdaq -1.33%, the S&P 500…

No cash session has printed since Friday

Friday gave the week to oil and took it back from everything else

Thursday settled firm and settled narrow

July inflation landed exactly where it was supposed to: consumer prices up 0.1% on the month, the annual rate 3.4%, core 0.2% and 2.5% — every…

Crude took the week: WTI settled $83.20, +1.30% on the day and +6.4% from Friday's close, with Brent at $88.91 — a third straight gain, and more…

Monday was the first full session since Friday and it moved one thing violently: WTI settled $82.13, +5.05% on the day, Brent $87.72, +4.99%,…

Friday's settled close still stands as the last full session: the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64, its best week since April, with the 30-year at…

The week ended with the S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64 and the VIX at 14.90, its lowest of the year, on the heaviest week for options volume on record

A soft July payroll drained the September hike out of the market: the dollar closed at its lowest since May and short Treasuries capped their best…

Gold closed at $4,396.20, up 2.25% on the day and its strongest week since January, with silver up 3.02% to $63.47

Iran confirmed it is finalising an accord with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz and the President said a deal could come within days - after weeks…

Crude had its worst two sessions of the war: WTI fell 5.5% on Tuesday to $75.92, taking the two-day fall to 12.5%, after the President called off…

THE BOND MARKET CALLED THE FED'S BLUFF

THE OIL SHOCK WON'T QUIT, AND BIG TECH'S AI BILL CAME DUE

THE RE-SPIKE - OIL TO $94, GOLD TO A RECORD, THE WAR ENTRENCHES

AN UNEASY BOUNCE ON A DIPLOMATIC FLICKER

THE WAR WENT KINETIC - OIL'S BIGGEST JUMP IN SIX YEARS

THE WEEK THE AI TRADE CRACKED - AND THE OIL SHOCK CAME BACK

TACO TUESDAY - THE TOLL'S GONE, THE WAR ISN'T

THE CAPPED RELIEF. June CPI came in benign - headline -0.4% m/m (the first outright drop since the 2020 pandemic), annual 3.5% from 4.2% - which…

The verdict week opens RISK-OFF: the US and Iran are fighting for control of the Strait of Hormuz, so oil SPIKED ~4% (WTI ~$74, Brent ~$79) and…

A week of narrative whiplash ended at S&P highs - but read what the index hides

The oil shock is round-tripping

Yesterday's shock is now a trend

The regime flipped: Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire OVER and the US resumed 'powerful strikes' after Hormuz tanker attacks (threat 'severe')

A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets - and the tone tilted dovish into Tuesday

Monday's reopen answered the weekend - and it wasn't holiday liquidity: the hard-asset bid HELD

Trump vowed to 'annihilate' Iran - and the safe-haven bid went into GOLD ($4,036, +1.6%; COT net-long a record-scale 115,395), NOT oil (WTI -2%)

One session, two major sell-offs: the AI trade rolled back over (Oracle's worst week since the 2001 dot-com bust, on AI-FINANCING fears) and the…

The market looked straight through a hot PCE - headline 4.1% (a 3-year high), core 3.4% above forecast - rallying the front end (2Y -8bps) and the…

The disinflation trade arrived - oil -4.5%, gold -3%, the two-year -8bps as the front end pivots from higher-for-longer to pricing relief

Two binary tests resolved in 24 hours and both broke the bull case: the AI trade cracked (semis -8%, Micron -13%) and the Iran deal became real…

The market keeps pricing the US-Iran conflict as resolved, and it keeps fraying - today's tape reads 'deal under strain, once again.' Prediction…

Emerging markets surged +3.3% and the S&P 500 advanced as credit spreads tightened, but the US–Iran sanctions standoff and Japan's intervention…

Reports of an imminent U.S.-Iran signing ceremony sent Brent crude down 4.7% today, the session's dominant price signal and the clearest evidence…